ICarData: The Best Time To Buy/Sell - Toyota Vios (NCP 150)

Resale value is possibly the third most important aspect of buying a new car besides the original sale price and the overall maintenance and upkeep of the vehicle. 

Having a car with strong resale value and good demand in the used car market ensures that the current owner can sell his/her vehicle promptly down the line.

Photo by Lukas from Pexels

Some cars retain value better than others, hence there's always a timely spot in the car's lifespan for when an owner should sell his/her car, to not lose too much on depreciation, and vice versa, the best time for someone who is looking for a used car should pull the trigger to purchase their next ride. 

Up until now, it's been hard for most people to ascertain the average used value for vehicles since the sale price of a used vehicle is dependent on a variety of factors, i.e: overall condition, mechanical soundness, variant type and accessories, location, and overall demand. 

However, now with the resources of our in-house developed iCarData, we can collate data from literally thousands of used vehicle deals, pinpoint our search down to a single model or variant and observe market trends, and overall demand over a number of years and across geographical locations. 

These algorithm-based data take the guesswork out of vehicle depreciation and help customers make better-informed purchase decisions. 

In this report, we will be looking at the popular (NCP150) Toyota Vios which was first introduced in Malaysia in 2013. We have taken into account the following to keep our numbers accurate and representative. 

• Vehicle variant: (NCP150) Toyota Vios "G Variant" (AT) delivered in 2013. 
• Depreciation is calculated using the original list price of RM85,500.00
• Depreciation percentage does not take into account special/seasonal offers or rebates on the original selling price.
• The G Variant is used as its the second-highest spec in the range (before the TRD Sportivo variant), and a volume seller which offers a wider spread of data points across the market.

Here's the summarized data for depreciation:

And the graphical analysis below:

• Blue line: Average selling price (RM) by year
• Grey line: Cumulative depreciation (RM) by year
• Orange line: Retained value percentage by year

From the graph above, we see the highest rates of depreciation in the first and second years of the car's lifespan.

Note that the slight spike in resale value in 2015 could be due to release of the updated 2015 Vios, which carried an RM4k premium over the 2013 model, hence used car prices may have increased slightly, as a response. 

2016 sees another dip in used prices due to comprehensive model revamp which saw the NCP 150 Vios receive the new 2NR-FE engine and Stability Control across the model lineup. This could explain a slight drop in demand for the older models, and hence selling prices.

Depreciation tends to plateau during the fourth and fifth years and settles in at around 57 percent of the original value. Looking further down the curve, we find that a 2013 model Vios will be valued at approximately RM45k in its sixth year, or around 51 percent original price retention. 

From this, we can infer, that the best time for an owner to sell his/her Vios will be in the sixth year of ownership. This because the cumulative depreciation closely approaches that of the retained value sum, any later, and the cumulative depreciation supersedes the former and sellers would recoup less money for their next vehicle purchase. Also, it is wise to retain ownership of the vehicle throughout the course of the manufacturer warranty.

Inversely, the best time for a used car buyer to snap up the Vios would be in the fourth year of its lifespan. This is to take full advantage of the slowing depreciation; buying a used Vios in the fourth year of its lifespan means the used buyer is getting the best deal/ age of car ratio. 

For some great deals on the Toyota Vios (NCP150), click here.

If you're looking to sell your Vios, we have two solutions for you too. List in on carlist.my or better still use Carlist Bid where we remove all the hassle of selling your car for you as you get searching for your next upgrade.  

Which make/ model would you like us to research next? Let us know in the comments.